Venezuela quake threatens transition, analysts say

Venezuela's June 24 double earthquake is threatening to slow momentum toward a democratic transition, with US officials emphasizing stabilization and disaster response while analysts warn that elections and opposition politics could be pushed back.

The disaster, which has killed more than 3,800 people, came one week after a June 18 power-sharing meeting in Caracas involving an opposition figure and National Assembly chief Jorge Rodriguez, the brother of interim President Delcy Rodriguez.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described Washington's approach as a three-part strategy of stabilization, recovery and transition. John Barrett, the top US diplomat in Caracas, said the United States was “100 percent focused” on the earthquake response and on advancing that plan, which he said remained intact.

The United States has sent rescue teams to support the humanitarian response. A US official blamed Venezuela's poor response on former leader Nicolas Maduro and said Rodriguez and other interim authorities had been fully cooperative with Washington.

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said she was “absolutely convinced” that her presence in Venezuela would help advance the transition and bring stability after the tragedy. Rodriguez accused Machado of plotting social unrest, saying Venezuela would not have unrest during national mourning.

Analysts cited by AFP said Washington may prefer stability over a rapid political transition. David Smilde of Tulane University said there was a danger the Trump administration would keep working with Rodriguez or anyone able to provide stability. Juan Manuel Trak, a Venezuelan professor and analyst based in Mexico, said Machado's return could put the stabilization phase at risk and act as a catalyst for discontent.

Florida Senator Rick Scott criticized any US cooperation with Rodriguez, calling her an illegitimate ruler and saying aid should not be channeled through her. Geoff Ramsey, a senior analyst at Recorded Future, said Rodriguez was trying to use the tragedy to preserve the status quo while the United States saw an opportunity to bring Venezuela under its geopolitical influence.