Ukraine front lines barely moved in July: AFP analysis

Ukraine’s front lines changed little in July as Russia’s momentum slowed, with Moscow gaining less than 40 square kilometres during the month, an AFP analysis of Institute for the Study of War data found.

Russia had gained 30 square kilometres in June. Its recent advances were far below the pace recorded a year earlier, when Russian forces were advancing by an average of 405 square kilometres a month, according to the analysis.

In April and May 2026, Moscow lost control of 403 square kilometres as its offensive slowed from the end of 2025.

Russia’s few July gains were in the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions. The front did not move in the Kharkiv region.

Ukraine gained 28.5 square kilometres in the Dnipropetrovsk region, continuing a trend that began in December 2025.

The ISW estimates exclude advances claimed by Russia that the institute has neither confirmed nor denied.

More than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Russia occupies a little more than 19 percent of Ukraine. That includes 7 percent in Crimea and parts of the Donbas that were already under Russian or pro-Russian separatist control before the invasion.