Trump's Republicans face tight midterm fight 100 days before vote

With 100 days left before the US midterm elections, President Donald Trump's Republicans face polling that points to a possible loss of the House of Representatives and a close fight to keep control of the Senate.

Trump will not be on the November 3 ballot, but the result could strongly affect the rest of his presidency. The report says a Democratic House would give the party control of committees and subpoena power, likely bringing investigations into the administration and potentially exposing Trump to another impeachment effort.

Republicans enter the final stretch with a narrow House majority, weak presidential approval ratings, voter concern about living costs, and the ongoing war with Iran. Decision Desk HQ predicts Democrats have a 59-percent chance of winning the House and forecasts a 224-211 Democratic majority. The president's party often loses seats in midterm elections, and only a small number of seats need to change hands.

The report says gasoline prices have risen above $4 a gallon as the Iran war disrupts energy markets, while inflation remains elevated and interest rates are high. Polling cited by Democrats suggests voters now trust them more than Republicans on inflation, health care and immigration. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said Thursday that Trump and Republicans had failed Americans, while announcing an affordability campaign focused on groceries, gasoline, housing and health care.

Republicans say the election will offer a choice between what Speaker Mike Johnson calls common sense and an increasingly progressive Democratic Party. They plan to emphasize border enforcement and tax cuts, while portraying Democratic candidates as aligned with the socialist left.

Trump has urged congressional Republicans to pass the SAVE America Act, which he describes as needed to prevent election fraud. Democrats condemn the measure as an attempt to suppress legitimate votes.

The report says Republicans have had more success in efforts to redraw congressional maps. It says both parties have tried to create safer seats, but Republicans appear likely to gain a net advantage of between five and 12 seats, which could matter in a close House contest. Sarah Binder, a politics professor at George Washington University, said redistricting has reduced the number of seats Democrats can contest, and the report says fewer than one in 20 House races are genuine toss-ups.

Republicans also hold a financial advantage, with party campaign committees and allied groups entering the final months with tens of millions of dollars more than Democratic counterparts.

The Senate contest is also close. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Decision Desk HQ narrowly favors Republicans to keep control through a 50-50 split, with Vice President JD Vance casting tie-breaking votes.

Even divided government, with Democrats holding the House and Republicans keeping the Senate, would change the remainder of Trump's term. The report says his legislative agenda would stall in the House, officials would face inquiries and public hearings, and Democrats would gain a platform to scrutinize the Iran war, administration ethics and Trump's attempts to reshape elections.

Political analyst Chuck Todd said Republicans had moved from clear Senate favorites nine months ago to very small favorites. He said House elections would likely produce a Democratic advantage of 10 to 25 seats, citing Trump's low polling. A new Economist/YouGov survey put Trump's approval at 36 percent.