Trump condition leaves US-Saudi nuclear deal tied to Israel recognition

A US-Saudi agreement to establish a civilian nuclear programme in Saudi Arabia faces a major condition after US President Donald Trump said approval would depend on the kingdom normalising relations with Israel.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that the nuclear agreement would be approved, but was “totally subject” to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. The condition could be difficult for Riyadh, which says it will not establish ties with Israel unless there is first a pathway toward a Palestinian state.

H.A. Hellyer, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said an attempt by Washington to force normalisation on Riyadh was unlikely to succeed. He said Israel’s public image was highly toxic and questioned whether Saudi Arabia would reverse its long-declared position.

The agreement had appeared to move Saudi Arabia closer to its goal of launching a civilian nuclear energy programme. The Saudi energy ministry says nuclear technology fits the kingdom’s policy of meeting rising energy demand while reducing reliance on hydrocarbons so petroleum can be used for higher-value purposes and export.

If approved by Congress, the agreement could also benefit US energy companies and deepen US-Saudi ties. Saudi security analyst Hesham Alghannam said the alternative was not a Saudi Arabia without nuclear ambitions, but a Saudi nuclear programme linked to Russian or Chinese supply chains, without US visibility or commercial influence.

The text of the deal has not been released. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday on the sidelines of a summit in Manila that safeguards against nuclear proliferation would be needed for congressional approval.

The agreement is likely to face criticism and concerns that it could further destabilise a region already affected by years of war. Israel is likely to welcome Trump’s condition, because the United States has for years sought to link a nuclear deal and a US-Saudi defence pact to Saudi normalisation with Israel.

The announcement also comes as the United States is fighting a war with Iran that the report says began largely over concerns about Tehran’s nuclear programme and uranium enrichment levels, an issue still central to stalled peace talks.

The Wall Street Journal had reported that one provision in the US-Saudi deal could allow US companies to build a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia. Trump appeared to reject that idea, saying there would be no enrichment of material. The US Energy Department did not mention such a provision and did not comment when asked.

US policymakers have long worried that the spread of nuclear technology and the possible weaponisation of energy programmes could fuel arms races in places such as the Middle East. Alghannam said the deal signalled that the post-war Middle East was developing new rules on nuclear cooperation, security guarantees and great-power competition at the same time.