Sudanese civilians fear army-allied militias may deepen war cycle

Civilians in Sudan fear that the army’s reliance on allied militias could repeat the pattern that helped produce the country’s current war.

The source describes young militiamen, some said to be no older than 15, moving through Sudan’s capital in pickup trucks fitted with missiles. It says the scene is familiar to people who remember how the conflict began after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, turned against the army three years ago.

The war began in April 2023. It has killed more than 200,000 people by some estimates. The source says the army is now depending on a new coalition of militias to fight its battles, causing fear among civilians in army-controlled areas.

A 30-year-old Sudanese writer, who requested anonymity for security reasons, said Sudan had seen the same pattern before and feared the groups could eventually turn on one another. Other civilians who spoke to AFP also asked not to be named for security reasons.

The source identifies three of the most powerful armed groups operating in army-controlled territory under army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan: the Joint Forces, a coalition of former Darfuri rebel militias; the Sudan Shield Forces, which defected from the RSF; and the Baraa ibn Malek Brigade, described in the source as an Iran-linked Islamist force. It says all three have expanded since the war began and have their own artillery, anti-aircraft missiles and attack drones.

Civilians in Port Sudan, Khartoum and Wad Madani described the groups as temporary allies. A 50-year-old father in Khartoum said the government had technically banned them from carrying weapons, but that armed men were still visible in markets and streets.

AFP journalists reported seeing Joint Forces fighters carrying assault rifles at a restaurant in Khartoum near unarmed soldiers. They also encountered Baraa ibn Malek fighters on the city’s outskirts, including one man in civilian clothes stopping cars with an AK-47 on his back.

The source says the Sudan Shield Forces dominate parts of Al-Jazira state southeast of Khartoum, where they have set up checkpoints and harassed civilians in areas where they had previously committed atrocities while aligned with the RSF. A local activist in her twenties said she did not trust the group and did not know where its loyalties lay.

The source says Sudan’s army has long used militias in its wars, including the Janjaweed militias armed by then-president Omar al-Bashir in the 2000s to crush an ethnic rebellion in Darfur. It says more than 300,000 people were killed by fighters later formalised into the RSF in 2013.

During the 2018-19 uprising, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as Hemeti, helped overthrow Bashir and became Burhan’s close ally. Burhan later said it was impossible that he and Daglo would fight, but a power struggle between them erupted into a war that the United Nations has called a “war of atrocities.”

The source says Burhan ordered armed groups to leave Khartoum after the army retook the capital from the RSF last year, but that they still move around freely. It also says he has tried to control the U.S.-sanctioned Baraa ibn Malek Brigade, which is considered the armed wing of Bashir-era Islamists and which the United States and Saudi Arabia have pressured him to move away from.

Army lieutenants have said armed groups must be integrated into the army, but the source says none of the groups has indicated that it plans to do so soon. A breakdown in talks over integrating the RSF was described as the last step before the current war.

A diplomat in Sudan said the armed groups were acting in their own interests and could leave if they felt short-changed. The diplomat described the Joint Forces as a possible next version of Hemeti.

In Khartoum, a 40-year-old accountant said people feared another war could break out at any moment between the militias and the army. In Northern State, some civilians described the Joint Forces by saying “the RSF is already here,” even though many Joint Forces members come from Darfur ethnic groups massacred by the RSF.

The Joint Forces are led by Darfur governor Minni Minawi and finance minister Gibril Ibrahim, both of whom are part of Burhan’s government and had rebelled against Khartoum for years. Sudanese analyst Kholood Khair said they were currently united with the army because they shared the RSF as an enemy.

Khair said there were several possible contenders who could later turn against the government. She identified Sudan Shield Forces leader Abu Aqla Kaykal as the most dangerous, saying he had created his own area of unchecked power after defecting from the RSF in 2024.

The source says Kaykal is from Al-Jazira state, which he now controls. The local activist said he was trying to distance himself from crimes committed while he was with the RSF. The source says fighters under his command besieged and burned villages while taking Al-Jazira for the RSF, and later committed ethnic massacres against villagers accused of helping the RSF after he defected.

Kaykal now appears regularly with Burhan. Analysts cited in the source fear Burhan is strengthening him as a counterweight to Minawi. Khair said Kaykal most closely resembled the RSF’s path and questioned what would happen if he demanded something Burhan refused to give.