Study projects more Amazon deforestation after soy moratorium ends

A paper published in Science projects that the end of the Amazon Soy Moratorium will lead to at least 1.4 million hectares of additional deforestation in Brazil over the next decade.

The paper examined the Amazon Soy Moratorium, a voluntary agreement under which soy traders agreed not to buy or finance soy grown on land deforested after July 2008. According to the report, almost one third of yearly soy expansion came from deforestation when the moratorium began in 2006. After it took effect, deforestation linked to new soy fields fell to almost zero.

The study’s authors, including researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, DePaul University and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, projected that the collapse of the pact could add 1.4 million hectares of deforestation by 2036. They estimated that this would release 745 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, comparable to Canada’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. The projected area is also about 17 percent of the total area deforested across the Brazilian Amazon over the past decade.

The source said the agreement came under pressure from soy farmers, who filed a $200 million lawsuit against traders, and from Brazilian antitrust authorities, which investigated signatories over allegations of cartel-like conduct. Mato Grosso and other soy-producing states also passed laws removing tax breaks from companies that used environmental sourcing standards stricter than legal requirements. Those laws are being challenged in Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court, but the report said they effectively ended the moratorium, which was abandoned in January.

Tiago Reis of World Wildlife Fund-Brazil, a co-author of the paper, told AFP that the moratorium had positive environmental effects and helped open markets by giving buyers assurance that soy was not driving further Amazon deforestation.

The paper also warned that tens of millions more hectares of undesignated public forest could face pressure from land grabs because of suitability for soy. Reis said cattle farming is often used first to claim such land, but soy is the strongest indirect driver of Amazon deforestation because it is the most valuable commodity that can be produced there.

The authors recommended stronger deforestation enforcement in Brazil and more deforestation-free sourcing by soy importers, including the European Union and China. They also said companies, banks and financial institutions should make stronger demands for deforestation-free soy.

The report linked the projected deforestation risk to recent progress under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, saying Amazon deforestation in Brazil fell to its lowest level in a decade in the first half of the year, according to figures released last week. Reis also warned that climate-related heat, a coming Super El Nino pattern, drought and wildfire risks could place further pressure on the rainforest in northern South America.