Report warns New Zealand may miss emissions targets

An independent report has warned that recent New Zealand government climate policy decisions could cause the country to miss its own emissions reduction targets.

The Climate Change Commission report was released earlier this month and was widely publicised on Wednesday. It said the government had ignored emissions-cutting advice in 2025. The commission said it had recommended a stronger target requiring deeper cuts to biogenic methane and net negative emissions for other greenhouse gases. It said the government instead amended climate legislation to reduce the required biogenic methane cuts by 2050 while leaving the net-zero requirements for other gases unchanged.

The report said there was little time left to change direction. It warned that several policy choices could increase emissions beyond savings made elsewhere. These included excluding agriculture from emissions pricing, changing clean vehicle rules, reducing business reporting requirements and planning a liquefied natural gas import facility.

Jo Hendy, chief executive of the Climate Change Commission, said emissions were gradually falling but progress had stalled in 2024. She said current policies were not moving fast enough and that government decisions over the next 12 to 24 months would be critical to getting the country back on track.

The report said New Zealand had introduced some policies in the past year that would reduce emissions, but said these would probably be outweighed by other actions that may increase emissions. It also cited the planned closure of the dedicated Ministry for the Environment as a risk. The ministry is due to be folded into a new department covering cities, environment, regions and transport.

New Zealand's government has also faced legal action over climate policy this year. Lawyers for Climate Action and the Environmental Law Initiative argued in court that the government was not doing enough to meet its targets. The result of that case is expected in the coming months.