OPEC+ expected to raise oil quotas again for September

OPEC+ members are expected to raise oil production quotas again for September when they meet online on Sunday, with analysts saying the group is nearing the end of its current series of production adjustments.

Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other members would likely agree to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day. He said the September increase is likely to be the last in the current round of quota changes.

OPEC+ cut output in three rounds between late 2022 and 2023, reducing total production targets by nearly six million barrels per day. A September increase would complete the unwinding of the second of those cut packages.

Analysts also cautioned that higher quotas may not immediately translate into higher oil volumes. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said many OPEC+ members cannot produce as much as their official targets allow because of a decline in production capacity.

Staunovo said the group is working on maximum sustainable capacity levels for member states. Analysts at DNB Carnegie said OPEC+ could face difficult talks over new production quotas starting next year.