Nigeria election campaigns start as Tinubu seeks second term

Campaigning began in Nigeria on Wednesday for a presidential election in which President Bola Tinubu is seeking a second term after years of economic turmoil and security crises.

The vote is set for January 16, five months after the campaign launch. Inflation, living costs and Tinubu's economic reforms are expected to dominate the race in Africa's most populous country.

Tinubu, elected in 2023, ended a costly fuel subsidy that had helped hold down prices across the economy. The reforms were praised by economists and investors but were followed by a cost-of-living crisis, a weaker naira and inflation that reached 34 percent before cooling to 15.4 percent in July.

The World Bank says more than 60 percent of Nigerians now live below the poverty line, up from 40 percent in 2019.

Nigeria also faces several security crises, including jihadist violence, armed gangs known as bandits, farmer-herder conflicts over land and separatist tensions. Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at ACLED, said violence has increased since 2024, driven by armed banditry in northern and central Nigeria and increased conflict in Borno state.

The election is set to partly repeat the 2023 contest. Tinubu will again face former southeastern governor Peter Obi and former vice president Atiku Abubakar. Tinubu won in 2023 with 36.6 percent of the vote, followed by Abubakar with 29 percent and Obi with 25 percent.

Rabiu Kwankwaso, who received about six percent of the vote in 2023, has joined Obi's ticket as his vice-presidential running mate. Turnout in the 2023 election was 27 percent.