Doubts surround Mexico's reported fall in homicides

Mexico's government says President Claudia Sheinbaum's security strategy has cut homicides sharply, but allegations about crime records have raised questions about the scale of the reported decline.

Sheinbaum said Tuesday that homicides had fallen 48 percent nationwide under her administration. She has presented the decline as evidence that Mexico is making progress against drug-fueled violence.

The reported drop is significant in a country where more than 463,000 people have been killed and 130,000 have disappeared since the government launched a war on cartels in 2006.

Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch attributed the decline to intelligence-led operations and arrests of key criminal leaders. Pablo Vazquez, who succeeded Harfuch as Mexico City police chief, said expanded investigative powers, stronger intelligence capabilities and a new elite tactical unit had helped reduce violence.

Officials have also targeted people and groups they call "violence generators," meaning suspects believed to be responsible for a large share of violent crime in a community. Vazquez acknowledged there could be recordkeeping mistakes, but rejected suggestions that homicide statistics could be falsified on a large scale.

Critics point to cases and data that they say raise doubts. In one case, security camera footage showed police officers pushing a taxi carrying two bullet-ridden bodies beyond Mexico City's limits. The officers were suspended for tampering with evidence. Critics said the case suggested an attempt to move a crime scene outside the capital.

Some experts and officials suspect that some murders are not being recorded as homicides or are being reported in other categories. A Mexico state police officer, speaking anonymously, said he did not believe the official decline. A former high-ranking police official who worked with Harfuch said he understood why officials said the numbers were down but could not believe they believed it themselves.

According to government figures cited in the report, the fall in intentional homicides has coincided with rises in categories such as "crimes against life," "death of undetermined origin," "crossfire" and "disappearances." Armando Vargas, a researcher at the public policy group Mexico Evalua, said such a rapid homicide drop raised questions when other categories had risen quickly.

Lisa Sanchez, a former director of Mexicans United Against Corruption, said there was a pattern in Mexico City in which prosecutors sent bodies to a common grave and listed them as violent deaths of undetermined origin before recording them as homicide victims.

Residents also described distrust of authorities. One resident of Mexico City's Pastora neighborhood said people were afraid to make anonymous complaints because they did not believe the complaints were truly anonymous. A Mexico State government official claimed prosecutors encouraged employees not to report every crime to avoid creating problems for their office.

Sheinbaum denied the allegations. Asked about recordkeeping concerns at a press conference, she said homicide is homicide and that there is no cover-up.

Many people remain unconvinced that the security situation is improving. The family of Brenda Aguilar, a 21-year-old nurse who disappeared in March, continues to search for her in the hills above Cuautitlan Izcalli, near Mexico City. Her family says killings, extortion and disappearances are getting worse. Her mother, Ingrid Aguilar, said the government says nothing is happening.