Maghreb fertility falls to historic low, study says

Fertility in Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria has fallen to a historic low, according to a recent study by France's Institute for Demographic Studies, as economic pressure and changing social norms reshape family life across the Maghreb.

Official figures cited in the study show fertility rates in all three countries have fallen by more than half since the 1970s. Tunisia now has the lowest rate, with 1.58 children per woman in 2023 and an estimated 1.53 in 2024. Morocco's rate was 1.97, while Algeria's was 2.61.

Researchers and demographers linked the decline to longer education, women's professional ambitions, urbanisation, changing family expectations, financial strain and rising divorce rates.

Tunisian demographer Hassen Kassar said Tunisia's fall reflected deep social changes, including the modernisation of families and smaller urban households. Chaimae Drioui, a researcher at Morocco's National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics, described the decline as a rational response by families to a new economic and social context.

The shift is also accelerating population ageing. People aged 60 and over now make up 17 percent of Tunisia's population, nearly 2 million people. The same age group accounted for 10 percent of Algeria's population in 2023 and 13.8 percent of Morocco's in 2024.

The Institute for Demographic Studies said that if deaths eventually exceed births, immigration would be the only way to sustain population growth. Kassar said labour shortages could make sub-Saharan migrants more important to the region's workforce, although migration remains politically sensitive in the Maghreb.