Israel election violence warnings grow before October vote

Warnings are growing in Israel that political violence could break out before the October 27 election, as a tight race and deep divisions raise concerns about intimidation and unrest.

President Isaac Herzog said in late July that the Shin Bet domestic security service had warned him of “various threats to the integrity of the elections, both internal and external”. In a televised speech, Herzog warned of “violence rearing its head” and said elections “are not a civil war”.

Israel was shaken in 2023 by mass protests against a judicial overhaul widely seen as an attempt to curb court powers. Protests later resumed over the government's conduct of the war in Gaza and the stalemate in hostage negotiations. The fighting in Gaza has since decreased in intensity and the hostages have returned home, but political tensions remain high.

The offices of the government-critical Haaretz newspaper and Channel 12 News were vandalised in July, with the culprit leaving a note threatening to next target journalists' heads with a brick.

A recent poll by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies found that about 39 percent of respondents cited “violent conflict between societal groups” as the most threatening scenario over the next five years, narrowly ahead of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Ofer Cassif, a parliament member from the Arab-Jewish communist party Hadash, told AFP he was concerned that opposition voters could face intimidation before and during the vote, including from police and “private, armed militias”. Ilana Shpaizman, a senior lecturer in political science at Bar-Ilan University, said she saw a greater risk of violence directed by the government against groups more likely to vote against it than of open clashes between rival camps.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who controls the police, has overseen the issuance of more than 200,000 civilian firearm licences since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack, a policy critics say is designed to build loyalty to him.