Iran signals offensive shift as US diplomacy stalls

Iranian officials are signalling a shift toward giving offensive operations a higher priority six months into the war with the United States, as diplomacy remains stalled and tensions over the Strait of Hormuz continue.

Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei outlined the approach in a reshuffle of top military commanders earlier this month, calling for "strengthening maximum deterrence and preparing to conduct large-scale offensive operations against the enemy". A deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said last week that Tehran was revising its military doctrine to give offensive operations strategic priority.

Since US-Israeli strikes launched the war on February 28, Tehran has largely described its strikes against the United States, Israel and Gulf countries as retaliation. The Strait of Hormuz has become central to the confrontation, with Tehran requiring vessels to seek permission and pay service fees to transit, a move opposed by Washington and regional countries.

Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy said the shift did not mean Tehran was adopting preventive war, but suggested Iran may believe it should escalate earlier if confrontation becomes unavoidable. Tehran-based international relations expert Ahmad Zeidabadi said Iranian officials may believe the United States has ruled out war and wants to maintain the naval blockade and economic pressure.

Diplomatic efforts remain stalled after a June 17 truce collapsed and the United States reimposed oil sanctions and a blockade on Iranian ports. US Vice President JD Vance said last week that keeping energy prices low for Americans was "goal number one", while preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon ranked second.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said last week that Iran had won the war militarily and politically, and described the collapsed deal as a source of pride and victory. Analysts warned that the new posture could be dangerous: Zeidabadi said a serious shift toward offensive action could be catastrophic for Iran and the region, while Toossi said future crises could escalate much faster.