Iran is gambling Trump avoids wider war, analysts say

Iran is making a high-risk calculation that limited escalation can restore deterrence without pushing the United States into all-out war, analysts said, as tensions focus on the Strait of Hormuz.

The US military said Iran struck at least three commercial ships in recent days. The United States responded with extensive strikes. President Donald Trump called a ceasefire “over” and vowed to strike Iran “hard,” while also saying he was not seeking a long war as oil prices rose.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Iran wants recognition that it controls the Strait of Hormuz, the route for one-fifth of the world's oil. He said Tehran views the strait as leverage that has replaced its earlier nuclear-enrichment bargaining position.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Iran is trying to avoid another full-scale war but believes failing to respond would project weakness. She described Tehran's approach as “calibrated, limited escalation.”

Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said he doubted a return to all-out war because Trump understands the economic and military costs. He said Iran sees control over the strait as its most important achievement in the war.