Inequality predicts pandemic outcomes, study says

Economic inequality is the clearest predictor of how countries fare during pandemics, researchers said in a paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The Global Council on Inequality, AIDS and Pandemics said its research found no association between a country's technical capacity, such as laboratories or trained emergency healthcare workers, and how well it handled the Covid and AIDS pandemics.

The paper instead found a clear and consistent link between a nation's level of economic inequality and its performance during both crises.

Joseph Stiglitz, a study co-author and economics Nobel laureate, said traditional measures such as laboratories, stockpiles and response plans were not enough. “High economic inequality can leave even wealthy, well-equipped nations dangerously exposed,” he said.

Lead author Matthew Kavanagh of Georgetown University said the panel was urging “inequality-informed pandemic preparedness”, including paid sick leave, unemployment support and cash transfers during crises.

The researchers also called for debt relief for low-income countries when a pandemic is declared and wider access to vaccines, drugs and tests during global health emergencies.

Raina MacIntyre, a University of New South Wales professor of global biosecurity who was not involved in the research, said it “makes many valid points” but cautioned that some assumptions were not supported by quantitative methods such as modelling or risk analysis.

The research is due to be presented at an AIDS conference in Rio de Janeiro on Thursday.