IEA says critical minerals investment fell in 2025

On 16 July 2026, the International Energy Agency said investment in critical minerals fell in 2025, even after Western countries promised to increase domestic production for national security reasons.

In its annual Global Critical Minerals Outlook report, the Paris-based agency said supply chains for minerals used in high-tech, aerospace and clean energy industries had become more geographically concentrated, especially in refining. It said China and Indonesia, the leading refining nations, accounted for more than three-quarters of total growth in refined supply over the past two years.

The IEA said geopolitical tensions and price volatility caused global investment in mining and refining of these minerals to fall by nine percent in 2025, despite efforts to diversify supply chains.

Tim Gould, the IEA's chief economist, said concerns about high supply concentration had shifted from a theoretical vulnerability to an immediate economic security challenge. The agency also pointed to the spread of export controls as a source of economic and security challenges.

The report said rare earth export controls introduced by China in April 2025 forced some automakers to reduce production or temporarily suspend operations. It said that if Beijing expands export controls as planned, an estimated $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China could be at risk.

The IEA also reported areas of improvement. It said public financing commitments more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, and that the United States and Malaysia are already reducing China's dominance in rare earth refining.