ExxonMobil, Chevron profits forecast to surge

ExxonMobil and Chevron are forecast to report much higher second-quarter profits Friday as the US-Iran war lifts energy prices and high gasoline costs increase political pressure in the United States.

S&P Capital IQ forecasts ExxonMobil quarterly profits of $14.9 billion, more than double the year-ago period, and Chevron profits of $11.1 billion, more than four times the 2025 level.

The war has caused an unprecedented supply shock through the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route used for about one-fifth of the world's crude oil and one-fourth of its liquefied natural gas each day. The conflict has also tightened oil product supplies and lifted refining margins.

US gasoline prices stood at $4.10 a gallon on Thursday, about 31% above year-ago levels, according to the American Automobile Association.

President Donald Trump said in June that he was directing the Department of Justice to investigate any industry "gouging". A CNN poll this week said roughly two-thirds of voters believed Trump's policies had worsened economic conditions ahead of November midterm elections.

European oil majors have already reported large profit increases. Shell reported profits of $10.8 billion, while TotalEnergies reported $5.4 billion.

Oxfam climate policy lead Mariana Paoli criticised the profits while people face hardship and climate-related disasters. Oxfam supports windfall profit taxes, but such taxes are not on the political agenda in Washington.