EU population projected to peak in 2029 before long decline

The European Union's population is projected to reach a high point in 2029 and then fall over the rest of the century, according to a report from the EU executive's Joint Research Centre.

The report says the 27-nation bloc has 450.6 million people now and is expected to peak at 453.3 million in 2029. It projects a decline to 398.8 million people by 2100, an 11.7 percent fall and a level last seen in the 1970s.

The centre said life expectancy at birth reached 81.5 years in 2024. It projected that by 2050 almost one in three EU residents will be 65 or older, compared with about one in five now. By 2100, it said life expectancy could pass 90 years for women and 86 years for men.

The report said ageing will create challenges including labour shortages, pressure on public finances, and strain on care and education systems. It also pointed to a growing market for goods and services aimed at older people, sometimes called the silver economy.

The researchers said migration can help reduce some effects of demographic change, but would have only a limited impact in fully addressing the challenges of an ageing population. EU commissioner Dubravka Suica told reporters that migration is needed. The report said migration can counterbalance some negative effects of lower fertility and a shrinking labour force.

The EU fertility rate fell to 1.34 children per woman in 2024, below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to keep the population stable without migration. The median age in the EU was 44.9 in 2025, with differences among member states. Ireland's median age was 39.6, while Italy's was 49.1.

Suica said demographic change is reshaping European societies, economies and labour markets, and said the EU should act to turn the shift into an opportunity. The EU says the bloc must raise productivity and reduce unemployment to offset a smaller workforce. The report said about 20 percent of working-age Europeans are outside the labour force, while about eight million young people are not in employment, education or training.

The report said Europe's trend differs from the global pattern, because the world population is not falling. It said population growth is increasingly concentrated in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and some Middle Eastern countries.