Climate change could triple Europe wildfire area

Climate change could nearly triple the area of land burned by wildfires each year in Europe by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario, a study said Thursday.

The study warned that fires may become more unpredictable and could affect regions with little experience of tackling them. It follows weeks of major blazes in Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal and Spain during dry conditions and a historically hot summer.

Lead author Maik Billing, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said climate change is increasing fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe.

Under a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario, one of the study’s two fire models projected that about 39 percent more land would burn each year compared with today’s average. The second model suggested a possible decrease in burned area at low warming, but the researchers cautioned that it relied on historical data that may not be repeated in the future.

Under a high-emissions scenario, with global temperatures rising by about 3.6C, the study projected that nearly 192 percent more land would burn each year by 2100, almost triple the current affected area. Billing said fires would become much more common around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that have not experienced many fires to date.

The authors said better fire management could reduce burned area by 72 percent to 92 percent compared with scenarios without such improvements. Co-author Thomas Hickler said investment in training, equipment and coordination could make a significant difference, but warned that if fires become extreme, firefighting capacity may break down.