Boeing forecasts 50,000 commercial planes worldwide by 2045

Boeing projected Friday that the global commercial aircraft fleet will reach 50,000 planes in 2045, with more than 90 percent made up of more fuel-efficient new-generation aircraft.

The company said the current global fleet is about 28,000 airplanes. It linked the expected growth to long-term demand from economic growth and additional travel routes.

According to Boeing's annual forecast, plane manufacturers will need to build nearly 44,000 new aircraft over the next two decades to meet new growth and replace older planes. The figures were released before the Farnborough Air Show in Britain and were similar to Boeing's 2025 outlook, which also pointed to favourable travel demand linked to rising GDP.

Boeing estimated that 92 percent of the fleet in 2045 will have the environmental benefits of newer aircraft, which it said use about 20 percent less fuel. It said about 32 percent of today's fleet is made up of new-generation aircraft.

Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst said at a briefing that 2026 had not developed commercially for airlines as many expected at the start of the year. He said, however, that the fundamentals for air travel and demand remained intact.

Hulst said he now expects 2026 travel demand to be about half, or even a little less, than expected at the start of the year. He said Boeing was surprised by how quickly airlines shifted traffic from the Middle East to other markets because of the conflict, with some passengers using hubs in Europe, Asia or North America for long-haul travel.

Boeing's forecast projects four percent annual passenger traffic growth and 2.5 percent global economic growth between 2026 and 2045.

The outlook also points to a gap between new plane production and demand, citing supply chain difficulties since the Covid-19 pandemic. Hulst said that deficit will probably not clear for single-aisle aircraft until the end of the 2020s and will continue into the early 2030s for widebody jets.