US-China ties face midterm tests, analysts say

Democrats' victory in the US midterm elections could test Washington's relationship with Beijing on tariffs, Taiwan and President Donald Trump's room for manoeuvre, analysts said.

Democrats' control of both houses of Congress gives the party more power to challenge Trump's foreign policy during the final two years of his term. Analysts said that could limit his use of tariffs on Chinese products, though they also said Democrats may move carefully because some tariffs are popular with unions, blue-collar workers and small businesses.

Wu Xinbo, dean at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said any Democratic limit on Trump would make him less able to use tariffs as leverage in negotiations with China.

Patricia Kim, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said Congress may be less inclined to support measures that sharply increase pressure on China if they risk raising costs for US consumers and businesses or increasing the likelihood of conflict.

Taiwan could be another test. Washington is Taipei's most important security backer, but Trump said in May that US arms sales to Taiwan could be a bargaining chip in talks with China. His administration has delayed a $14 billion weapons package for months.

Wu said a Democrat-controlled Congress may force Trump to resume arms sales to Taiwan next year, which he said would undermine stability in US-China relations. Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute, said renewed congressional support for Taipei could instead give Beijing a stronger reason to act more cautiously on Taiwan.

Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said Congress can pass bills requiring Trump to approve an arms sale, but that the president can veto such legislation or ignore it.

Analysts also said Beijing is unlikely to abandon efforts to work directly with Trump. Kim said Beijing is likely to keep using high-profile leader-to-leader engagement with Chinese President Xi Jinping as the least costly way to manage relations with Washington.