Oil supply to top demand in fourth quarter, IEA says

Global oil supplies are expected to exceed demand in the fourth quarter after higher Gulf exports produced a market surplus in October for the first time since the Iran war, the International Energy Agency said.

The Paris-based agency said Gulf shipments reached 18.4 million barrels per day, though that was still 26 percent below pre-war levels. It said attacks on tankers trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz had continued.

“The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran,” the IEA said in its monthly report.

The agency said overall oil supply rose by three million barrels per day in September and a further 2.3 million barrels per day in October as Tehran began allowing more vessels with its authorisation to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

The IEA said global demand is set to fall by 2.7 million barrels per day overall this year as oil prices remain well above pre-war levels and electrification and fuel efficiency increase across the global car fleet.

Diesel prices stood at $180 per barrel in October, around 77 percent higher than before the war, the agency said. It said diesel supply remained the main concern for the wider market and consumers, with Iranian strikes on Gulf refineries and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy sites also disrupting supplies.