Myanmar faces ICJ genocide ruling as ASEAN weighs ties

Myanmar faces a pivotal diplomatic week as the International Court of Justice prepares to rule on whether the state committed genocide against the Rohingya, while ASEAN leaders debate how far to restore relations with its post-coup leadership.

The ICJ is scheduled to rule on Thursday, November 19, on accusations that Myanmar breached the United Nations Genocide Convention in its treatment of the Muslim Rohingya minority. The judgment concerns state responsibility, not individual criminal guilt.

The ruling is due during a three-day Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in the Philippines starting Sunday, November 15. ASEAN has kept Myanmar leaders out of summits since Min Aung Hlaing's 2021 military coup ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government and triggered civil war.

The court case dates to 2017, when Myanmar was accused of brutalising the Rohingya through killings, rape and arson, driving nearly 750,000 people into Bangladesh as refugees. Min Aung Hlaing led the military at the time. He was installed as president in April after elections rejected by democracy watchdogs.

A Yangon-based Rohingya activist who asked not to be named for security reasons said the pending judgment should weigh on ASEAN leaders as they consider whether to normalise ties.

Myanmar has already received signs of support from some ASEAN members. Min Aung Hlaing has had official welcomes in Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, and Malaysia hosted him last month to speed the return of Myanmar migrants.

Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group said the ICJ ruling may make some governments more cautious but is unlikely to stop a drift toward normalisation because it will not impose personal legal restrictions on Min Aung Hlaing. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said he did not foresee the ruling disrupting a process of “calibrated re-engagement.”

Myanmar will still be represented at the Manila meeting by senior civil servants. Analysts cited by AFP said Singapore, which takes ASEAN's rotating chair next year, is expected to resist normalisation, while Thailand is pushing for closer relations before it chairs the bloc in 2028.