WTO raises 2026 trade growth forecast to 3.9%

The World Trade Organization raised its 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%, citing supply chain adaptations and a surge in artificial intelligence investment.

The WTO's new forecast is up from the 1.9% growth it predicted in March. It also forecast 4.1% trade growth in 2027, up from a 2.6% prediction made seven months earlier.

The Geneva-based organisation said increased spending on semiconductors, data centres and digital infrastructure had raised demand for imported goods needed for AI. Trade in semiconductors, servers and other AI-related equipment rose 67% year on year in the first half of 2026, accounting for 47% of global merchandise trade growth, the WTO said.

The WTO also said global GDP was expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.

WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the figures showed “trade resilience in action”, but added that not everyone could access emerging opportunities such as AI.

The WTO said disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz had reduced energy supplies and raised prices for key energy products and fertilisers, but that most economies outside the region remained resilient. It said services trade and some regions remained more exposed to the effects of the conflict.