US holiday sales forecast to top $1 trillion

US holiday sales are forecast to exceed $1 trillion for the first time this year, the National Retail Federation said Thursday.

The retail trade group projected 4.2% growth in holiday spending to just over $1 trillion. Last year, sales rose 3.1% to $972 billion.

The NRF forecast covers sales from November 1 to December 31 and excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

NRF officials said higher fuel prices could weigh on discretionary purchases, especially for low-income households. But the group’s chief economist, Mark Mathews, said the labour market was resilient and that households were expected to keep prioritising spending on family, friends and loved ones.

The NRF also projected that retailers will hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal employees, compared with 356,000 last year. Mathews said that level of seasonal hiring was smaller than in the more distant past.

He said retailers were unlikely to pass on all increased shipping costs linked to higher diesel prices because the industry competes strongly on lower prices.