Texas Democrats see rare chance to beat Ken Paxton

Texas Democrats see a rare chance to win statewide office in the November 3 midterm elections, with polling showing a competitive US Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.

No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, and President Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024. But a University of Texas poll released this week put Talarico ahead of Paxton by 50 percent to 47 percent, a lead within the survey's margin of error. A separate UMass Lowell poll found the two candidates tied.

Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher, state lawmaker and Presbyterian seminarian, has tried to appeal to independents and Republicans disillusioned with Trump. He says Texans have more in common than the country's political divisions suggest.

Trump has campaigned for Paxton, warning at a rally in San Antonio that losing the seat could threaten Republicans' narrow Senate majority. He accused Democrats of wanting to reopen the country's borders.

Paxton, the Texas attorney general and a Trump ally, was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 over allegations of corruption and abuse of power. The state Senate acquitted him. The Wall Street Journal reported that Paxton spent New Year's Eve in Dubai with two American businessmen indicted over alleged healthcare fraud; both have pleaded not guilty.

Democrats are also pointing to discontent over immigration enforcement and the cost of living. Benny Melendez, a construction business owner and son of immigrants who voted for Trump, said immigration crackdowns had cut his work, profits and workforce in half.

Cattle industry groups in Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma have warned that immigration raids are disrupting agricultural businesses, deterring legally employed workers and threatening to raise beef prices. A May survey by UnidosUS found that one in five Texas Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 would not do so again if given another chance.

Democrats also see an opening in the governor's race, where Republican incumbent Greg Abbott faces state lawmaker Gina Hinojosa. Hinojosa has focused on the cost of living as she seeks support beyond the traditional Democratic base.