Sub-Saharan Africa growth forecast raised to 4.5% by IMF

The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.5% on Thursday, saying the region had shown resilience through a series of crises.

The IMF increased the forecast by 0.2 percentage points from its April World Economic Outlook update. It said global energy supply adjustments and private-sector adaptation helped cushion the shock from the US-Iran war.

Since late February, global oil, gas and fertilizer prices have risen as a result of the US war on Iran, with several African countries exposed because they are net importers of those commodities.

IMF Africa Director Zeine Zeidane told AFP that growth remained too weak in per-person terms. “It would take the region nearly 50 years to double its income. By comparison, Southeast Asia managed to double its income per capita in 15 years,” he said.

Zeidane said many countries had maintained growth without jeopardizing public finances, helped by fiscal consolidation and better domestic revenue collection. He said debt-to-GDP ratios were broadly declining in most countries.

Debt servicing still accounts for 12% of GDP on average and up to a third in some countries, Zeidane said. He warned that government financing needs were crowding out private-sector credit.

The IMF also sees risks from El Nino, which Zeidane said could hurt agricultural production and electricity generation, especially in southern Africa. He said flooding could threaten agriculture in parts of eastern Africa.

Zeidane said an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo was “difficult to contain” and represented a shock for Congo and its neighbors.