Latvia election exit polls put Kulbergs' party ahead

Exit polls from Latvia's parliamentary election put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centre-right United List party in the lead on Saturday, suggesting the country is likely to keep its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian direction.

Public media LSM published exit polls showing United List on 35.6 percent after a campaign shaped by concerns over neighbouring Russia and the cost of living.

Kulbergs told journalists the result was “higher than expected” and said it showed people wanted change, including economic growth and “a future for Latvia's children.”

The figures also suggest his current coalition may not survive in its existing form. The Union of Greens and Farmers, one of its coalition partners, was shown at 3.7 percent, below the five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament. That result, together with projected outcomes for other coalition parties, means Kulbergs would have to form a new ruling coalition.

Exit polls are usually reliable, but support for more radical parties may be understated if voters are reluctant to disclose it. Before the election, populist parties had gained attention by focusing on economic pressure and, in some cases, questioning parts of Latvia's support for Ukraine.

Latvia has been a member of NATO and the European Union since 2004 and sees Russia as its main security threat. The election was also fought against a backdrop of rising living costs, low wages, healthcare strains and long-term population decline.