IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%

The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% on Tuesday but warned that the outlook was split between economies benefiting from artificial intelligence investment and poorer countries exposed to high energy prices.

The new forecast, released in the IMF's World Economic Outlook at its Annual Meetings in Bangkok, was 0.1 percentage points higher than the fund's previous projection. The IMF expects global growth of 3.5% in 2025.

Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF's chief economist, said the global economy had been resilient but that risks were tilted to the downside. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned of a risk of complacency after repeated shocks that had not pushed the world into recession.

The fund said many advanced economies had been supported by investment in AI technology. But it warned that countries not benefiting from that boom, especially energy importers and low-income economies, faced pressure from high energy prices linked to the US-Iran war.

The IMF said the Middle East and Central Asia region was expected to contract 0.3% in 2026. It projected Saudi Arabia's economy would shrink 3.3%, a 5.0 percentage point cut to its forecast.

Advanced economies were forecast to grow 2.1% in 2026, with stronger figures for countries in the AI supply chain such as Taiwan and South Korea. The IMF said China's growth was expected to slow mainly because of weak domestic demand.

The fund also forecast global inflation would accelerate to 4.7% in 2026 and called on governments to manage debt and borrowing while using only temporary, targeted measures to ease high energy and other costs.