Gulf oil exports through Hormuz rebound, Kpler says

Gulf oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to pre-war levels, according to preliminary data from commodity-tracking platform Kpler, as more vessels transit the waterway under US escort despite Iran’s blockade.

Kpler said non-Iranian crude flows through the strait from Gulf countries and Iraq averaged 13.5 million barrels per day between September 22 and 28, equivalent to levels before the Middle East war.

Before the war, about a fifth of the hydrocarbons consumed worldwide passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran still claims control over the waterway, and ships without its authorisation risk attack, but more vessels are leaving and alternative routes meant to bypass the strait are operating at full capacity.

Saudi Arabia has benefited from the reactivation of its East–West pipeline, which links its eastern oil fields to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea and allows exports to bypass Hormuz. The pipeline was shut on September 11 after strikes launched from Iraq and resumed operations on September 22, Kpler analyst Amena Bakr said.

Kpler data showed at least 10 tankers left Yanbu loaded with crude over the weekend. On Sunday, 9.5 million barrels were exported from the terminal area, a volume not seen since the start of the conflict.

The United Arab Emirates can also bypass Hormuz through a pipeline linking Abu Dhabi’s fields to Fujairah, a terminal on the Gulf of Oman outside the strait.

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have restarted, focused on restoring freedom of navigation in the strait. Iran has proposed reopening it in exchange for the unfreezing of Iranian assets abroad, lifting sanctions on its oil sector and ending the US naval blockade, among other conditions. Washington has rejected the plan, but indirect talks are continuing.

Sanam Vakil of Chatham House told AFP that the current arrangement was “not sustainable” because Gulf states depend on the United States to secure maritime routes but also need a political understanding with Tehran.

Risks remain. International benchmark Brent stayed above $100 a barrel, total traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained far below its pre-war level, and British maritime agency UKMTO said unknown projectiles struck three ships in the waterway on Tuesday. Omani and Indian authorities said an attack on a cargo ship in the strait last week killed an Indian sailor.

The Iran-backed Houthis have seized Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, disrupting exports from Saudi Arabia and wider maritime traffic.