Global trade to grow 4% in 2026, UN says

Global trade in goods and services is expected to grow by around 4 percent in 2026 after reaching a record high last year, the UN Trade and Development agency said Friday.

UNCTAD said the expected increase mainly reflects higher prices rather than larger trade volumes. It said global trade rose 4.7 percent in 2025 to $35 trillion.

The agency said trade between China and the United States has fallen by more than 20 percent since 2024, while East Asia has expanded trade with both China and North America.

UNCTAD forecast global economic growth of 2.6 percent this year, down from 2.9 percent in 2025. It said trade is being driven mainly by products linked to artificial intelligence.

The agency said developed economies captured about 70 percent of the value of foreign investment projects announced from 2020 to 2025 in strategic, high-value-added sectors, including semiconductors, energy transition technologies and AI infrastructure.

Developing economies led only in critical minerals and strategic materials within those sectors, accounting for 60 percent of new foreign direct investment, UNCTAD said.

The agency also said energy shocks linked to the conflict in the Middle East had particularly affected import-dependent developing economies and the poorest households. It said development assistance for least developed countries and small island developing states is projected to fall by nearly 7 percent in 2026, its third consecutive annual decline.