El Nino could be strongest since 1950, UN says

El Nino will intensify before peaking in December and could become one of the strongest such events since at least 1950, the United Nations said Thursday.

The World Meteorological Organization said the naturally occurring weather phenomenon is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the world and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions.

“El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” WMO chief Celeste Saulo said. She said WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 percent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027.

El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns worldwide. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months.

The WMO said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels during October, November and December 2026. The key temperature index rose from 1.6C above normal in June to 2.5C above normal in August, and is forecast to reach about 3.7C above normal in October-November-December.

That would exceed the previous record of 2.6C set in 2015-2016, according to the WMO. Saulo said El Nino does not add new heat to the planet but releases heat stored in the ocean, which she said is the warmest ever measured.