China economy seen missing growth target in AFP poll

China’s economy is expected to have grown 4.4% year on year in the third quarter, below the government’s annual target, according to economists polled by AFP before official data due on Monday.

The forecast would be a slight rise from 4.3% growth in the second quarter, but below Beijing’s 4.5% to 5.0% target for 2026.

China has struggled for years with a real estate slump that has weighed on consumer confidence and wider activity. Analysts in the AFP poll also pointed to weak domestic demand, subdued retail performance and lower fixed-asset investment.

Sheana Yue, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, said available data suggested China’s economy lost momentum during the July-September period. She said weak consumption and property investment remained the main challenge.

The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook released this week, slightly lowered its China growth forecast to 4.5%, citing higher crude prices, uncertainty and structural headwinds. IMF Asia and Pacific department director Krishna Srinivasan said Beijing’s recent support measures were limited and that more near-term fiscal stimulus was needed until the economy reflates.

Official data released Wednesday showed China’s exports continued to grow, giving support to the economy, but the scale of shipments has strained relations with major trading partners including the United States and the European Union. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said in Bangkok that China’s growth model needed to shift more toward domestic consumption.