AI boom drives growth but raises risks, IMF says

The AI boom has become a major support for global growth but could create risks if investment slows, policymakers and economists said at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok.

The International Monetary Fund said in a report released Tuesday that spending on data centres and microchips had helped cushion the economic shock from rising global energy prices linked to war in the Middle East. IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said global trade rose 8.3% between 2023 and 2025, compared with an estimated 4.6% without AI-related products.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Friday that AI was visible in GDP, stock markets and bond markets. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the most consequential change to the global economy in his lifetime and said it offered a “huge benefit”, but warned that the path ahead would be “bumpy” because the technology and its market structure remain uncertain.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva told AFP that a slowdown in the AI industry would be felt worldwide. She said a loss of confidence that pulled money away from AI could create financial stability risks. An IMF report projected that a decline in AI investment could reduce global GDP by 0.4% by 2028.

Moody's Analytics economists warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could “puncture” the AI boom by raising energy prices, operating costs and interest rates. Regulation is another unresolved issue: US President Donald Trump has urged limited government regulation, while some in the industry have called for laws to mitigate risks. Georgieva said Friday that without safeguards, AI risks could exceed the opportunities.