Trump $5,000 dividend pledge could cost $1.4 trillion

President Donald Trump's promise to give $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans keep control of the House of Representatives and Senate in November could cost about $1.4 trillion.

The pledge has raised questions about legality, cost and funding. Federal law prohibits offering payments in exchange for votes and separately restricts promises of federally funded benefits in return for political support. The proposal is framed as a campaign promise and would apply to adult Americans regardless of how they voted.

Any such payment would require congressional authorization because the US Constitution bars the president from spending Treasury funds without an appropriation made by law. Trump told CBS News Texas he did not think Congress would need to approve the payments, without explaining how.

There are about 276.8 million adults aged 18 and over in the United States, according to Congressional Budget Office data. Paying each $5,000 would cost about $1.384 trillion. If payments were limited to US citizens, the cost would be about $1.27 trillion. A narrower approach, such as payments only to income-eligible tax filers and dependents, would lower the cost.

The three rounds of pandemic stimulus checks approved in 2020 and 2021 cost about $814 billion in total, according to federal oversight data.

US consumer inflation is running at 3.4 percent, above the Federal Reserve's two percent long-term target. Research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated that pandemic-era fiscal stimulus, including business support, added about 2.6 percentage points to US inflation.

Tariff revenue would not cover the pledge soon. The government collected $195 billion in customs duties in fiscal 2025, meaning a roughly $1.4 trillion payout would equal about seven years of that revenue. The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs in February, forcing the US Treasury to refund importers with interest, and net customs revenue turned negative from May through July.

The Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank, estimated that spending more than $1 trillion on a one-time payment program would push the deficit close to $3 trillion, even with revenue from Trump's remaining tariffs.

Trump has made similar pledges before that did not happen, including promises of $2,000 checks from tariff revenues and $5,000 checks from savings from federal job cuts.

Democrats criticised the proposal. California Governor Gavin Newsom called it an attempt to buy votes with taxpayer-funded “blood money.” Representative Jamie Raskin described it as a “political bribe” and part of a “reckless and dysfunctional presidency.”