Sweden election polls show tight left-right race

Sweden votes on September 13 in a tight general election that could bring the left-wing opposition back to power after a campaign focused on healthcare, welfare and security.

Opinion polls have pointed to a victory for the centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats, but Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's centre-right coalition and its parliamentary ally, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, have narrowed the gap in the final weeks.

Three polls in the past week put the four parties on the left at around 50 percent and the four parties on the right at around 47 percent. Stockholm University political scientist Jan Teorell told AFP that the polls had long shown a large lead, but that there was still suspense.

The right-wing bloc has campaigned on its record on crime and immigration after years of shootings and bombings linked to organised crime networks. The left has promised higher taxes on banks and high incomes to invest in healthcare and schools and help households facing rising costs.

Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats told AFP the election was about what country Sweden should be, contrasting her vision with what she called a government dominated by the far-right Sweden Democrats.

The Sweden Democrats, the second-biggest party with around 20 percent of votes, hope to enter government for the first time. Kristersson became prime minister in 2022 after his minority coalition made an agreement with the party, giving it significant influence over crime and immigration policy in exchange for support. He has promised the Sweden Democrats cabinet posts, including the migration portfolio, if re-elected.

Security has also featured in the campaign. Sweden has joined NATO since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and is increasing defence and civil preparedness. Teorell predicted no major changes on NATO and defence policy if the left forms a government, but said there would be higher taxes and more investment in welfare.

If the right-wing bloc trails in the vote and the four left-wing parties remain ideologically divided, difficult negotiations may be needed to form a government.