Russia escalation fears rise in Europe beyond Ukraine

European governments and officials are warning that Russia could escalate its conflict with Ukraine beyond the battlefield and target Kyiv's supporters elsewhere in Europe.

Western leaders have warned of a rise in Russian covert operations, including drone flights near sensitive sites, airspace violations, cyberattacks and sabotage. Russia has repeatedly denied involvement in such activity.

Western officials say Russia is facing battlefield challenges in Ukraine and losing momentum in the east. An AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War found that Russian forces lost more ground than they captured in April and May. Russia's advance gained pace in August but remained far slower than in previous years.

France's armed forces chief Fabien Mandon estimated in August that 30,000 to 35,000 Russians are killed or wounded in combat each month. A Western official said the gap between Russia's casualties and the number of people it can recruit is about 6,000 a month.

Moscow has used enlistment bonuses, recruited fighters from Africa and Latin America, and deployed an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 North Korean troops behind the front lines in Russia, according to the supplied assessments. President Vladimir Putin has ruled out repeating the mobilisation that prompted an exodus of Russian men in September 2022.

Berlin this month blamed Moscow after explosive-laden drones were discovered at Leipzig airport in August. French President Emmanuel Macron said that if they had detonated, the consequences could have included loss of life and major damage, and said the intention of Russian military intelligence services was clear.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned last week, citing intelligence assessments, that Moscow's plans included drone and missile strikes on countries supporting Ukraine. Macron said Tusk's remarks were well founded and well documented.

A European security source said such Russian plans existed but that spy agencies had not detected any intention to put them into effect.