Israel settlement sanctions may help right, analysts say

British-led sanctions over Israeli settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank may embolden Israel's right ahead of elections, analysts and a European diplomat said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to strengthen his right-wing base before October 27 elections. In Britain, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said his government would ban trade with Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. France and Canada joined the sanctions, and nine other Western countries voiced support.

A European diplomat said there were strong reasons for the measures but questioned the timing before Israel's vote. “I wonder in the run-up to the elections whether this won't be instrumentalised by the government,” the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Israel responded with countermeasures, including ordering the closure of Britain's consulate in Jerusalem. Criticism of the sanctions crossed party lines in Israel. Former centrist prime minister Yair Lapid called Britain's move “serious and misguided” but also accused Netanyahu of a diplomatic failure in not preventing Israel's isolation.

Sara Yael Hirschhorn, a University of Haifa historian who has written on the settler movement, said the sanctions could energise voters for right-wing parties, including smaller parties that might otherwise fail to enter parliament. “It seems to me that this has the potential to backfire spectacularly,” she said.

Esteban Klor, an economist at the Institute for National Security Studies, said settlement goods account for a small part of Israel's economy and that the sanctions may be hard to implement because Israel does not readily distinguish between goods from settlements and goods from Israel proper.

Mairav Zonszein, senior analyst on Israel for the International Crisis Group, said Netanyahu was unlikely to shift course, but the sanctions and the lack of criticism so far from US President Donald Trump could send a message to the next Israeli government. She said a future government may want to reduce settler violence and repair Israel's image in the West.

Britain has argued that action is needed because Israeli settlement expansion is undermining the feasibility of an independent Palestinian state, including through the E1 project, which would split the northern and southern West Bank. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband described Israeli settler violence as “ethnic cleansing”.