Conflict & Security
Ethiopia armed groups' alliance faces doubts
Seven Ethiopian armed groups have announced an alliance aimed at overthrowing the federal government, but analysts said deep rivalries and the army's advantages could limit its effect.
The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival brings together the main anti-government armed groups from several regions. They include Fano from Amhara, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Tigray People's Liberation Front and four smaller armed groups from Afar, Ogaden and Benishangul-Gumuz. Fano leader Zemene Kassie was announced as the alliance's leader.
TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa told AFP the alliance had been in preparation for more than a year. The TPLF ran Ethiopia for nearly three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, then fought a 2020-2022 civil war against the federal government. The African Union has estimated that war killed at least 600,000 people.
Analysts said coordinated operations could force the government to face several fronts. Kjetil Tronvoll of Oslo New University College said four to five fronts might be a challenge, and Jalale Getachew Birru of ACLED said the groups could share intelligence and launch coordinated operations.
But analysts also pointed to limits. A January report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies put the federal army at about 500,000 troops. The federal army is the only force with drones, which proved decisive during the civil war. Edward Bach of Verisk Maplecroft said the groups share opposition to the federal government but differ over ideology and any post-Abiy Ethiopia.
Earlier alliances have not lasted. A 2021 coalition that included the OLA and TPLF had little military impact and quickly fell apart. Fano and the TPLF fought on opposite sides during the civil war and remain divided over western Tigray, which Fano claims as Amhara territory. Amanuel said discussions on western Tigray would come later.
Update
Analysts said the alliance could force Ethiopia's government to deal with four or five fronts if the groups coordinate militarily.
A January report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies put the federal army at about 500,000 troops.
Analysts cited ideological differences, mistrust and past conflicts among alliance members as limits on the alliance's prospects.
The source adds that a 2021 coalition including the OLA and TPLF had little military impact and quickly fell apart.
Source note: AFP news report published on 21 September 2026 at 14:07:10 UTC.
Update
TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa said Fano leader Zemene Kasse will chair the alliance.
Amanuel Assefa said the groups had been talking with each other for more than a year.
The item adds that Fano fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the Tigray war.
The item says the groups have territorial disputes, including over Western Tigray, which has been administered by Amhara nationalists since the end of the war.
Amanuel Assefa said the groups would later try to solve their problems peacefully.
Source note: AFP news report published on 20 September 2026 at 17:08:45 UTC.
Update
The alliance includes Tigrayan forces, Amhara nationalist Fano militias, the Oromo Liberation Army and four other groups.
The African Union says the federal government and the TPLF have massed troops along the border of the northern state in recent months.
Federal authorities had not responded to AFP's request for comment.
Kjetil Tronvoll questioned whether the rebel alliance could sustain a war against the federal government.
Source note: AFP news report published on 20 September 2026 at 16:16:30 UTC.
Update
A TPLF official said seven Ethiopian armed groups have formed the alliance.
TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa said the alliance aims to remove the government and facilitate a transitional government.
Source note: AFP news report published on 20 September 2026 at 15:37:01 UTC.
Uncertainty notes
It was not clear what prompted the alliance's formation at this moment.
The alliance's ability to coordinate military operations remains uncertain.
How the alliance members would resolve disputes over western Tigray remains unresolved.
Source
AFP news report published on .