Brazil elections put Bukele crime model in spotlight

Brazil's October 4 elections have put El Salvador President Nayib Bukele's hardline security model at the centre of the country's crime debate, with right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro promising to import parts of it.

Crime and insecurity are major voter concerns in Brazil, where organised crime groups such as Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital control areas in favelas and street robberies are widespread. Recent polls reported that 88% of Brazilians support tougher sentences for criminals and 79% support lowering the age of criminal responsibility.

Bukele's policy in El Salvador has reduced gang violence through mass arrests and imprisonment under a state of emergency. Rights groups have criticised the approach over arbitrary detentions, torture and deaths in custody.

Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, called El Salvador's reduction in violence “inspiring.” He has pledged to build maximum-security mega-prisons and designate Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital as terrorist organisations.

Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking reelection, has avoided similar rhetoric. His main security strategy is what he calls “financial suffocation,” targeting the assets and businesses that criminal groups use to launder money.

Some voters interviewed by AFP supported a tougher approach, including Rio de Janeiro martial arts instructor William Correia, who said he wanted criminals in Brazil to get a “reality check.” Others warned of greater police impunity. Sonia Bonfim Vicente, whose daughter was wounded by a police officer in 2018 and whose husband and son were later killed by police during another operation, said Brazil would become a “bloodbath” if it adopted the Bukele model.

Robert Muggah of the Igarape Institute said the model could weaken democratic safeguards in Brazil without producing the same fall in violence seen in El Salvador, arguing that Brazil's criminal networks are more complex and extend through legitimate businesses and financial systems.