Bab al-Mandab oil route faces Houthi assault

Yemen's Houthis have launched a ground assault around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, raising risks around a Red Sea chokepoint used for oil shipments and trade between Asia, Europe and North America.

The strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden in the Indian Ocean. It is about 100 kilometres long and 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, separating Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea.

The route is used by oil tankers and cargo ships travelling to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. IMF PortWatch data analysed by AFP showed Suez Canal traffic fell from 26,895 vessels in 2023 to 14,498 in 2024 and 14,070 in 2025 after Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping during the Gaza war. Average transits from January to August 2026 stood at 40.8 vessels per day, still little more than half the pre-crisis level.

The Houthis do not control the coastal areas bordering Bab al-Mandab, but they hold the port city of Hodeida farther north. A Yemeni military source told AFP on Monday that the Houthis had seized the coastal city of Mokha.

Since declaring a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in July, the Houthis have repeatedly attacked Saudi ships in the Red Sea. They have denied seeking to close Bab al-Mandab or impose transit fees.

The US Energy Information Administration said 12 percent of world oil shipments transited Bab al-Mandab in 2023. Commodities data firm Kpler estimated Saudi crude shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu averaged about 3.8 million barrels per day from March to July, around five times the pre-war level, before falling to 1.5 million barrels per day in August after Houthi attacks on Saudi shipping resumed in July.

Preliminary Kpler data put exports at 2.44 million barrels per day in the first nine days of September, although that figure remains subject to revision.

Andreas Krieg, a security expert at King's College London, said the biggest danger was persistent uncertainty rather than a physical closure of Bab al-Mandab. He said Houthi control of the coast would increase the group's strategic leverage, while risk to shipping already existed without control of the strait.