Climate & Environment
UN says world will miss 1.5C climate target
The United Nations Environment Programme said the world will miss the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, and that countries must now plan for an overshoot while trying to bring temperatures back down.
In a report involving dozens of scientists, UNEP said global action to cut greenhouse gas emissions “has not been fast enough to avoid global warming crossing 1.5C.” It said the best remaining option had shifted “from avoiding overshoot to navigating it.”
Scientists cited in the assessment said warming above 1.5C carries grave risks. The world has already warmed by roughly 1.4C since 1850-1900, mostly because of fossil fuel burning, and the past three years have been the hottest on record.
UNEP said reversing warming after the threshold is crossed is “theoretically possible,” but deeply uncertain. Even in its most optimistic scenario, temperatures would have to peak at 1.8C before falling back to 1.5C this century, requiring rapid emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal at enormous scale.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the effort would require “an overshoot of ambition.” UNEP executive director Inger Andersen said the 1.5C goal remained the target, but added: “Now, we need to approach it differently: from above.”
Climate Minister Maina Talia of Tuvalu said the report’s message had struck low-lying atolls. Marshall Islands climate envoy Tina Stege said the certain overshoot ahead meant vulnerable countries were being swept into “very dangerous waters.”
The Alliance of Small Island States said the report should be a wake-up call for more urgent action. Greenpeace International’s Jasper Inventor called it “a heartbreaking moment,” but said overshoot was not a reason to give up on the 1.5C goal.
A previously published warning tied to the same UNEP assessment said melting glaciers are increasing the risk of destructive floods as climate change accelerates ice loss. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a co-author of the assessment, said faster melting can expand lakes near glaciers and destabilise glaciers or nearby mountain areas.
Update
UNEP said global action has not been fast enough to avoid global warming crossing 1.5C.
The assessment is described as the first by a UN agency to state unambiguously that the 1.5C target will be breached.
UNEP said the best remaining option has shifted from avoiding overshoot to navigating it.
The report said returning warming to 1.5C this century is theoretically possible but uncertain and would require major emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal at enormous scale.
Under the most optimistic scenario described, temperatures would need to peak at 1.8C before returning to 1.5C this century.
Climate-vulnerable nations and campaign groups reacted with alarm and urged greater action.
Source note: AFP news report published on 2 September 2026 at 15:44:17 UTC.
Update
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner said climate change is accelerating glacier loss and increasing the risk of destructive flood events.
He said more than 40 percent of global glacier mass loss since the 1970s occurred in the last decade.
He identified rapidly melting glaciers in South America and the Himalayan-Karakoram-Pamir region as areas of concern.
The item links the warning to the August 26 glacial collapse on the China-Nepal border, after which more than 1,100 bodies have been recovered.
Source note: AFP news report published on 2 September 2026 at 12:29:40 UTC.
Update
UNEP's report says even its most optimistic scenario has temperatures peaking at 1.8C before returning to 1.5C by the end of the century.
Tuvalu's climate minister Maina Talia and Marshall Islands climate envoy Tina Stege warned about the impact on low-lying Pacific countries.
Report authors Richard Betts and Debra Roberts said governments now need to plan for an overshoot pathway.
Source note: AFP news report published on 2 September 2026 at 10:49:47 UTC.
Uncertainty notes
The report said a return to 1.5C after overshoot is theoretically possible, but great uncertainty remains.
Future warming pathways depend on emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal at scales not yet achieved.
Source
AFP news report published on .