US gerrymandering leaves few House races competitive

US redistricting battles have left only a small share of House races competitive ahead of November's midterm elections, even though all 435 seats will be on the ballot.

The Cook Political Report rates 38 House races as competitive this cycle, and only half of those as genuine toss-ups. The item says the number of districts with single-digit margins in presidential elections has also been falling.

The latest fight over district maps took place outside the usual post-census cycle. President Donald Trump urged Republican-led states to redraw maps to protect his party's narrow House majority. Texas moved first, Democratic-led California responded with a map of its own, and an April Supreme Court ruling narrowing the Voting Rights Act opened opportunities for Republicans across the South.

Most estimates cited in the item put the Republican net gain at around 10 seats, a number that could matter in a closely divided House. Some maps are still in court.

The changes have reshaped individual districts. Tennessee Republicans split Democrat Steve Cohen's Memphis-based, majority-Black seat among three safely Republican districts, and Cohen decided not to run again. In North Carolina, Democrat Don Davis is running in a redrawn seat after Republicans changed his old district so that it no longer included his home. In California, Republican Kevin Kiley's Sacramento-area seat was fragmented into six pieces, leaving him with a more Democratic electorate; he quit the Republicans but still votes with the party and plans to run as an independent.

Analysts and former lawmakers cited in the item warn that safer districts can make party primaries more important than general elections, pushing lawmakers to appeal to activists rather than broader electorates.