Uganda succession battle grows as army chief vows run

Uganda's army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba has said he will run for president in 2031, intensifying speculation over who could succeed his father, President Yoweri Museveni, after more than four decades in power.

Kainerugaba, 52, has announced and retracted presidential ambitions several times before. This week, he said he would run at the next election and expected to get 90 percent.

The army chief faces a challenge inside the president's family from Odrek Rwabwogo, 56, who is married to Kainerugaba's sister Patience. Rwabwogo presents himself as a reformer and is associated with the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development.

Kainerugaba has not taken the challenge lightly. He called Rwabwogo's think tank an illegal organisation and threatened to start arresting its members, including Rwabwogo himself if he questioned the authority of security officers. In deleted posts on X, Kainerugaba also boasted that he had kidnapped Rwabwogo's personal aide.

Rwabwogo has avoided naming Kainerugaba directly in public criticism, but said in a video message that Uganda must allow people to communicate and speak without fear. He said political reform was needed for growth and would require rule of law, restraint, honest communication and disciplined leadership.

David Kabanda, chairman of Kainerugaba's Patriotic League of Uganda, accused unnamed political rivals of trying to use shortcuts to reach top political office.

Gerald Waluya, a communications lecturer at Makerere University in Kampala, said Rwabwogo was trying to market himself as a more democratic alternative to Kainerugaba, but said that did not necessarily mean he was what he claimed to be.

Museveni, 81, has not publicly stated his succession preference. Political analyst Ronald Leonard Egesa said many people assume the former guerrilla leader would favour the camp leaning toward military control of power.