Key OPEC+ members agree 188,000 bpd September oil rise

Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other key OPEC+ members agreed in an online meeting on Aug. 2 to raise September oil production by 188,000 barrels per day, the participating countries said in a joint statement.

The decision was made by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. It completes the unwinding of the second of three production-cut packages introduced by the enlarged Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

OPEC+ cut output in three rounds between late 2022 and 2023, reducing total production by nearly six million barrels per day. Several members later began gradually increasing production from 2025.

Analysts cautioned that higher targets may not quickly become higher oil volumes. Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said OPEC+ had finished unwinding its voluntary cuts, but that the market impact would come when normal export flows resume because the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said many OPEC+ members cannot produce as much oil as their official targets allow because of a decline in production capacity.

It remains unclear when the group will actually be able to increase its oil volumes. Leon said Rystad Energy's base case was a fourth-quarter pause while OPEC+ prepares for 2027 quota negotiations. Analysts at DNB Carnegie said the group could face difficult talks over new production quotas starting next year.