Nigeria election campaigns start as Tinubu seeks second term

Campaigning began in Nigeria on Wednesday, August 19, five months before elections in which President Bola Tinubu is seeking a second term amid economic strain and security crises.

The January 16 presidential race is expected to be dominated by inflation, living costs and Tinubu's economic reforms. Nigeria's presidency said Wednesday it would "stay the course of reform -- no reversals" and promised to turn macroeconomic gains into meaningful effects for households.

Tinubu, elected in 2023, ended a costly fuel subsidy that had helped hold down prices across the economy. His government has also liberalised the exchange rate and overhauled the tax code. The reforms have been praised by economists and investors, but they were followed by a cost-of-living crisis, a weaker naira and inflation that reached 34 percent before cooling to 15.4 percent in July.

The World Bank says more than 60 percent of Nigerians now live below the poverty line, up from 40 percent in 2019.

Nigeria also faces several security crises, including jihadist violence, armed gangs known as bandits, farmer-herder conflicts over land and separatist tensions. Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at ACLED, said violence has increased since 2024, driven by armed banditry in northern and central Nigeria and increased conflict in Borno state.

The vote is set to partly repeat the 2023 contest. Tinubu will again face former southeastern governor Peter Obi and former vice president Atiku Abubakar after plans for a united opposition collapsed. Tinubu won in 2023 with 36.6 percent of the vote, followed by Abubakar with 29 percent and Obi with 25 percent. Rabiu Kwankwaso, who received about six percent last time, is running as Obi's vice-presidential candidate.

Tinubu's All Progressives Congress controls the national assembly and 31 of Nigeria's 36 governorships. Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of the Nigeria politics newsletter The Bellwether, said the opposition had been too mired in internal and legal issues to clearly distinguish its policies from Tinubu's.

The January 16 vote also includes elections for the national assembly. Gubernatorial polls are scheduled for February 6. Turnout in the 2023 election was 27 percent.