Netanyahu faces Iran war doubts six months in

Six months into the US-Israeli war with Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing questions over whether the conflict has improved Israel's strategic position.

AFP cited analysts who disagreed on the war's outcome. Danny Citrinowicz, a former senior Israeli intelligence analyst on Iran now at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, called it “a colossal failure of Israeli strategy regarding Iran”. Alex Grinberg, a senior fellow focused on Iran at the Turan Research Center, said Israel had significantly set back Iran by damaging its nuclear programme, infrastructure and economy.

Israel killed Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the conflict, according to AFP. But Citrinowicz said Israel now faced a choice between accepting a new nuclear deal that could strengthen Iran or trying to weaken it further and increasing the risk that Tehran seeks a nuclear weapon.

A June survey by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Agam Institute found 92% of Israelis believed Iran won or gained more from the conflict. AFP said the finding was a warning sign for Netanyahu before elections scheduled for October 27.

Netanyahu had said he hoped to “create conditions for regime change” in Iran, but did not explicitly make toppling the Islamic republic his goal. A foreign diplomat based in Israel told AFP that Netanyahu may see the United States as now directly at war with Iran while Israel remains mostly on the sidelines.

Iranian counter-strikes killed 25 people in Israel and four in the occupied West Bank, according to the AFP account. More recently, Iran has focused fire on Gulf Arab states that host US troops.

The war has also strained Israel's standing in the United States and could shape future relations with Iranians. Liora Hendelman-Baavur, a senior research fellow at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, said there was “a real possibility of lasting hostility towards Israel and the United States” if the war is remembered through civilian casualties and damage rather than only through the removal of senior Iranian figures.