Gulf air hubs lose traffic as war reroutes flyers

Gulf aviation hubs are losing transit traffic after six months of war in the Middle East, with more passengers using alternatives such as Istanbul as airspace restrictions affect routes through the region.

The International Air Transport Association said business for Middle Eastern airlines, measured by passenger kilometres, fell 30 percent between April and June. It said the figure was down close to 50 percent on routes to Europe.

Aviation data specialist OAG said scheduled flight seats at Dubai were down 15 percent year on year in August, the largest fall among the world's top 10 airports, although Dubai remained the world's leading international airport by that measure.

The shift matters for Gulf carriers because connecting travel has been central to the region's aviation strategy. Last year, nearly one in six connecting passengers worldwide passed through the Middle East, and connecting passengers accounted for nearly half of traffic through Dubai and Abu Dhabi and almost three-quarters through Doha.

Paul Chiambaretto, an air transport specialist at France's Montpellier Business School, said risk-averse European airlines had cut services to the region and that Turkish Airlines had become "the big winner". He said Istanbul's location allowed Europe-Asia connections with only a slight detour.

Turkish Airlines' customer base is up five percent since the start of the conflict. Its lower capacity on Middle East flights has been offset by a six percent rise on routes to Europe and a 16 percent increase for East Asia. In July, Istanbul's main airport overtook London Heathrow with more than eight million travellers.

Gulf airlines are trying to recover. Emirates said early this month it had restored 92 percent of capacity planned before the war, while Qatar Airways said in mid-June that it had restored 85 percent of its network. Etihad increased capacity by nine percent year on year this month, making it the only one of the three major Gulf carriers to do so.

Longer term, Gulf hubs also face pressure from longer-range aircraft that allow more direct flights between secondary cities, reducing the need for stopovers.