Diplomacy & Geopolitics
South China Sea tensions weigh on ASEAN meeting in Manila
South China Sea tensions threatened to overshadow an ASEAN meeting in Manila on Tuesday after the United States condemned what it called dangerous Chinese actions in the contested waterway. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the Philippines before a planned Wednesday meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the summit.
The meeting is taking place amid US criticism of Beijing's conduct in the South China Sea and claims by US President Donald Trump that China interfered with American election data. In an opinion article published in the Philippines, Rubio said Washington remained committed to freedom of navigation in Southeast Asia. He warned that the United States and ASEAN states would face threats if the waters came under the control of a power willing to use trade as a geopolitical weapon, an apparent reference to China.
Beijing claims sovereignty over almost the whole South China Sea, a major global trade route, although an international ruling said its claims have no legal basis. On Monday, Philippine and Chinese sailors clashed at Second Thomas Shoal in the first serious seaborne encounter there in months. Manila said China Coast Guard personnel assaulted Filipino sailors near a beached vessel used as a garrison on the disputed shoal. Beijing said the Philippines caused the incident by sending men in small rubber boats toward a Chinese vessel.
The clash raised new doubts about efforts to reach a long-discussed Code of Conduct between ASEAN and China for the waterway. China's ambassador to Manila told local reporters on Tuesday evening that he believed a deal could still be reached by the end of the year.
Energy security is also expected to be discussed during the week. The report said renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz and the war with Iran were putting economic strain on traditional US allies. The Philippines, which depends on imports, declared a national energy emergency in March and has sought wider sources of fuel, including oil from Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was expected to arrive in Manila on Tuesday.
ASEAN foreign ministers are also facing the question of Myanmar's reintegration. Myanmar has been excluded from high-level summits since the military seized power in 2021. In May, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos called for a fine-tuning of ASEAN's long-stalled five-point plan to end Myanmar's civil war. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow told AFP that he had asked ministers to consider how progress should be measured, saying change would be incremental. Malaysia's foreign minister said in May that his country opposed high-level talks while oppression was still taking place.
Update
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the Philippines before a planned Wednesday meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Rubio published an opinion article in the Philippines about freedom of navigation in Southeast Asia.
Philippine and Chinese sailors clashed on Monday at Second Thomas Shoal, with Manila and Beijing giving conflicting accounts.
China's ambassador to Manila said he still believed an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct deal for the South China Sea was achievable by the end of the year.
Renewed hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz and the war with Iran are expected to add focus to regional energy security discussions.
The Philippines declared a national energy emergency in March and has bought oil from Russia among other sources.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was due to arrive in Manila on Tuesday.
ASEAN ministers are also discussing how to handle Myanmar's exclusion from high-level meetings, with Thailand urging a realistic incremental approach and Malaysia opposing high-level talks while oppression continues.
Source note: AFP news report published on 21 July 2026 at 17:31:54 UTC.
Update
Australia's foreign minister criticised Beijing's conduct in the South China Sea as "destabilising and dangerous".
Source note: AFP news report published on 21 July 2026 at 05:25:08 UTC.
Uncertainty notes
Manila and Beijing gave conflicting accounts of the Second Thomas Shoal clash.
The timing and prospects of an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct remain uncertain.
ASEAN members remain divided over how to handle Myanmar's reintegration.
Source
AFP news report published on .